VOLATILITY RISING! THE U.S. DOLLAR IS DOOMED.

March 27, 2023 Written by AXiS ALiVE

DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX CONTINUES ITS DECLINE

The Dollar Currency Index, also known as DXY, is continuing its decline after the blow-off top last October. You can see the price of the Dollar is trapped under the 21 Weekly Moving Average and heading towards my first target level of 99.

In addition to a falling Dollar, banks are collapsing and being backed by an increasingly less trustworthy Federal Reserve. The loans being given to bail out the banks are a form of quantitative easing. In one week, the FED reversed half of all the QT it accomplished over the past year. This resulted in a net 300 Billion dollar injection of freshly printed money.

This is a chart of the DXY in BLUE versus the FED Balance Sheet in ORANGE. You can see that every four years the FED pumps their balance sheet and then the DXY follows it to the upside. The only anomaly is in 2016 under the Trump Administration where the FED was actually losing assets from its balance sheet for the first time in 20 years. It is interesting that in August of 2019, ahead of schedule and leading into the Pandemic, the FED started adding to its balance sheet in preparation of the global pandemic. The Dollar saw a massive increase in price over the next year before hitting its blow-off top in October of 2022.

So what does this mean for cryptocurrency?

Any time the FED decides to inject Liquidity into the market it is the signal of an incoming Bull Run in cryptocurrency. The chart below details four distinct periods of action.

• Stable Balance Sheet

• Rising Balance Sheet

• Falling Balance Sheet

• Rapid Liquidity Injection

Any time the FED's Balance Sheet falls, Bitcoin price drops into a bear market. A stable balance sheet, by contrast, usually marks a gradual bottom on Bitcoin and eventual trend reversal.

Whenever the Balance sheet is increasing, Bitcoin pumps. And, any time the FED injects liquidity into the Banking system in an effort to prevent contagion, that has signaled that Bitcoin is about to go on a parabolic move upwards. The most recent event on the chart is a Liquidity Injection in attempt to prevent further banking collapses. This means Bitcoin is likely to go on a parabolic bull run in the coming year.

Cryptocurrency can transform commerce by removing market barriers and enabling a truly global free market of goods and services.

HEX VOLATILITY ANALYSIS

See this 180 Day Volatility Analysis on HEX. Since the PulseChain Sacrifice Phase, there have been four distinct periods of price action.

• Rising Channel Volatility - This period was the height of excitement around Pulse and PulseX Sac Phases. Price of HEX ranged between 10 Cents and 56 Cents for six months.

• Falling Wedge Volatility - This period of time, HEX was sold off as profit after the massive 10,000x run-up from all time lows. The end of this period saw a breakout in price from 10 cents to 20 cents before a massive crash due to Pulse not launching on time.

• Broadening Wedge Volatility - This Period is where the bottom was set between 2.5 cents and 7 cents. Volatility of the asset broke down and relentless sell pressure into a capitulation low of 1.69 Cents.

• Rising Channel Volatility - This was the most recent period we are experiencing now where HEX price has risen over 600% to the local high of 12.6 cents (13 cents on some pairs) and is now ready to enter a new period of volatility.

Image Courtesy: HEXFIRE.IO

The volatility chart looks a little different if you view it on a 90 Day basis from the Big Pay Day Low. Again there are four distinct periods but this tells a slightly different story.

• Volatility Increasing - This was a period where the volatility increased at the same rate as price increased. This period topped at 2 Cents and was never met again.

• Volatility Squeeze - This period was where price became trapped between 0.006 and 2 cents before price broke out toward the pre-sacrifice value of 9.2 Cents.

• Volatility Decreasing - This period was where HEX price topped in volatility ahead of Price by about three months. The writing was on the wall in terms of Historical Volatility that price would continue on a decline.

• Re-basing Period - This was a period of time where HEX caught a massive bounce from its summer lows and ran all the way back to 7 cents before resuming its downtrend. This period of time has been the bottoming of HEX price and the overall volatility in the past 90 days has over-performed the general curve of the re-basing period.

Image Courtesy: HEXFIRE.IO

The question we must ask ourselves is what waits ahead in terms of price performance for HEX leading into the PulseChain Mainnet Launch?

If the Volatility analysis is any indication, we should expect to see an increase in volatility leading into main net. After a short re-accumulation at the 45%-55% off levels from the local top, every dump will be met by an equal or greater pump. This action comes in anticipation of the duplication of assets onto PulseChain.

Contrary to that is the possibility of a cool off period where HEX volatility retraces slowly back down and price settles back into its 5-6 cent range before a large injection of liquidity makes price rise rapidly past the 12 Cent Resistance Level.

Huge shoutout to EAGLESNEST for showing the way with this Wall St. Cheat Sheet x HEX Mashup.

MARKETING MAKING IN CRYPTO BOOTCAMP

AXiS ALiVE and Crypto Sloth are putting together a course on market making in HEX with the help of our friend Silver the Antidote. If you are interested in this opportunity please be on the lookout for announcements on our public channels or shoot us a message at: axisalive@outlook.com

Day 1 One and a half Hours of Content, One Hour of Questions

• What are you doing when you LP?

• V2 vs V3

• How to read an LP chart

• Single sided LP vs Ranged

• Impermanent loss

• Estimating ROI

  • Consolidated Ranges vs Broad Ranges

  • Volumes

  • Time frames

Day 2 Two Hours of Content, One Hour of Questions

• Sentiment

• Volatility

• Trend

• Volume

  • Key Wallets

  • LP Pool Charts

  • Allocation

• Time Frames

• Strategies

• Charting

• Chain Analysis

• Differences between Fee Pairs in ROI

• Gas Fees

• Routing

Thanks for joining me for this weeks Blog Post. I look forward to seeing you online for our upcoming broadcasts and content offerings.

Best Wishes,

AXiS ALiVE

Any views expressed in the below are the personal views of the author and should not form the basis for making investment decisions, nor be construed as a recommendation or advice to engage in investment transactions.